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Copper price stable as stocks recover

April 9, 2021by Ruth Smart

The price of copper has ben stable at £ 6.5 / kg since February, while bonded stocks have recovered from a low of 75 kT to yesterday’s 157 kT. While still a historic low, see graph, the trend indicates supply exceeding demand and if the stock levels cross 200 kT then I expect the price of copper to fall back below £ 6 / kg.

There has been a lot of talk about demand for copper and other commodities caused by governments trying to de-carbonise, but that is going to take time, irrespective of self imposed deadlines, and will depend of the weakest link. Right now focus is on the rare earth metals required for electrification, the shortage of which will hold back demand for copper.

Also, the current high price of copper makes aluminium and copper coated aluminium conductors more economic.

All of which means that I a consider forecast copper demand to be over hyped and real demand within supply chain capacity.

How long it takes copper to fall below £6 / kg depends on when speculators go short on the price of copper. Dont be the one sitting on a pile of copper stock when the price falls !