The price of copper has increased slightly over the last month, back to September levels, while LME bonded stock has held steady at 175 kT.
The Global economic outlook remains depressed while investment is still going into “Green” investments, all of which need copper. At the moment demand seems to be matching supply and I do not expect and significant changes in the near future.
The LME price of copper continues to drift downwards while LME bonded copper stocks marginally increased to £187 kT.
Difficult to know the impact of the Hamas / Israel conflict on the price of copper. I hope that peace makers prevail and that diplomacy takes over before the conflict escalates and spreads to other counties.
Meanwhile the Russia / Ukraine conflict drags on with neither side being able to make a breakthrough or backing down.
China has it’s own problems with real estate deb and subdued export demand.
However, our world still needs to press on with de carbonising which will need many tons of copper.
Metal stockists appear to be willing to hold stock in expectation of increased demand.
The recent fall in the price of copper surprised me, it’s dropped back to where it was in October 2021, while bonded stock level remains steady.
It appears that traders don’t want to be caught holding stock as the world goes into a global recession caused by the recent jump in fuel prices and war between Russia and Ukraine.
Digital trading speeds up changes in commodity prices as algorithms react to negative market sentiment and I expect that the price of copper is entering a period of extreme volatility as trading adjusts to the first negative market since 2020.
Copper is unlikely to fall all the way back to it’s pre Covid price of £5 / kg because of higher energy prices but could easily fall to £6/kg over the coming months.
The LME price of copper has edged higher over the last few weeks to GBP 7.85 / kg while bonded stocks have recovered to 105 kT.
Falling consumer demand due to the recent jump in energy prices and the ongoing Covid issues in China have reduced demand while producers have been able to increase supply. This has led to increased LME stocks but prices are not falling due to higher energy costs causing inflation at levels not seen for decades.
Inflation is unlikely to ease this year due to the continuing war in Ukraine putting pressure on both energy costs and food costs.
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